There are a Million Stories in the Naked Book…

Philip Jones, deputy editor of The Bookseller, presents The Naked Book, a fortnightly radio show “dedicated to ripping the covers off print books and finding out what lies beneath”.

I was invited to participate in the most recent edition, Face the Bafflement and Do It Anyway, where I was joined by Dublin publisher/commentator Eoin Purcell, and Laura Owen of New York City’s Paid Content.  We covered the waterfront at an indecent speed, and with a high degree of candour, and low levels of obeisance.  It’s the longest day today, and it’s pouring with rain – what better way to pass an hour than to log in and enjoy.

You can listen to the broadcast here.

Amazon and Waterstones: Lessons from history

No argument about what today’s big story is – though details of the proposed relationship between Waterstones and Amazon are scant at present.  The Guardian is all over the story: and

both merit your attention, and The Bookseller has of course been updating all day long.

The Bookseller asked me to write an instant blogpost, and you can read it here.  I don’t just draw lessons from history, but I’ve been through one consummated relationship with Amazon in my life, so some reflection is allowed!

To comment on this blog post, just click on “leave a comment” in the Tags block above.

World E-Reading Congress: Legacy, bookshops and the future

The Bookseller has run a piece on the speech I gave to the World E-Reading Congress earlier this week, so I’m reproducing the text in this blog entry.

Whilst I’ve edited out some of the more obvious “lecture” elements (eg “Good afternoon, my name’s Philip Downer”), this is still a talk, so in places you may find it (even) more rhetorical than some of my usual writing; similarly, the grammar and syntax will be a little sketchy or forced in places!

My audience consisted of publishers, and those who provide publishing services – distribution, analysis, technical support, media coverage, plus a smattering of creatives (writers, illustrators, designers) and some online sellers of books and/or content.  There were no bricks and mortar retailers present.

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My theme for this afternoon is Bookselling: The past is another country, but the future is another planet.

This is a bit clunky, but on an agenda full of brave new worlders, keenly identifying opportunities and breakthroughs for the future of eReading, I am the lucky person who has elected to talk about shops.

I’ve given a few talks over recent months, and as I approach each one, the news for specialist booksellers appears to have got a little bit more challenging.  At Frankfurt last year, I observed that “We are entering a world where a handful of corporations own proprietary formats through which all the books, and a great proportion of all other creative content, are channelled.  New technology can do great things, but it can also damage supplier diversity and consumer choice.”

I stand by these words.  The bigger and more powerful the mega-corporations become, the more entrenched they’ll be.  They operate out of highly protected walled gardens, and their goal is to tie you, very tightly, into their specific eco-system.  It isn’t in their interests to allow this situation to change – even though I would argue, it is clearly not in the best interests of every author, publisher and reader, for a handful of tech-driven organisations to own books and reading.

I’m talking to you today about retailing, rather than the broader outlook for publishing.  However, the old author/agent/publisher/bookseller/reader model is significantly fractured and everyone in this industry needs to decide whether monopolies or diverse markets are more appropriate for its future.

As this is an eReading Congress, I think a show of hands would be appropriate.

Who uses an electronic device in their leisure reading – an eReader, a tablet, a smartphone?  [Practically everybody in the room.]

Put your hand down if your principle device is a Kindle.  [Around half of those present.]

OK.  Now, lower your hand if your principle device is an iPad or iPhone.  [The other half of the room.]

Sony?  Kobo?  Nook?  AN Other?  Samsung phone?  PC?  [No, no, no.  Everybody used Amazon or Apple devices.]

Although they play very different roles, there are of course two, big dominant players in our new world, a retailer and a consumer electronics company.  But Amazon and Apple are an odd couple

Amazon: is setting a course to becoming the world’s biggest retailer, and en route laying waste to the established author/publisher/bookseller ecosystem.

Take a look at its performance for the first quarter of this year:

Q1 2012

Revenue:      $13,180,000,000

Profit:          $      130,000,000

Margin:         1.0%

Amazon sells ebooks and pbooks at low margin, break-even or a loss.  This (we are assured) benefits the customer.

Amazon has very patient investors, who support a high P/E ratio, currently running at over 90x.  I assume they work on the principle that, once world domination is assured, the profits tap will be turned on.  Otherwise, where’s the value?

How many sectors and countries does Amazon have to dominate before this happens?

Apple:  is producing the products that everybody wants, selling phones, tablets and other hardware and content at a spectacular profit.

Notwithstanding Samsung, it pretty much leaves all its competitors in the dust.  It also, by-the-bye, runs a highly successful and much-respected retail chain.

Looking at its quarter one performance:

Q1 2012

Revenue:      $39,200,000,000

Profit:           $11,600,000,000

Margin:         29.6%

This extraordinary margin, we understand, also benefits the customer; so Amazon’s 1% is a good thing, and Apple’s 29.6% is also a good thing.

Naturally, Apple’s investors are as happy as can be, and they’re even being promised dividend payments in the future.  Oh, and Apple’s P/E ratio is a rather more rational 10.5.

Jeff and Steve have made this world for us in which consumers are happy to pay top dollar for the best hardware, and the lowest conceivable prices for content.

In the past month, of course, a new alliance has been formed – something of a 1990s supergroup.  Is the Microsoft/Barnes & Noble alliance strategically brilliant, or a last throw of the dice?  Microsoft has a track record of alliances with previous cycle winners, like Yahoo! and Nokia.

However, publishers and many readers are looking for alternatives to Amazon’s hegemony.  The deal enables B&N’s Nook and College divisions to separate themselves from the old superstore business, and provides the firepower for the Nook to be launched worldwide, with a solid retailer base in the US.

Are Barnes & Noble the future, or is this just a coming together of legacy businesses?  And what is a legacy business, anyway?

Ten years ago, if I’d said “legacy” to you, you’d have understood it in the old sense – “Something handed down from an ancestor or a predecessor or from the past”.  A legacy was a good thing – real value created by previous generations, and a solid foundation for the present and the future.

Today, the word “legacy” is used as an unthinking term of abuse – essentially, any business that has a history longer than a few years is a “legacy” business, and thus unfit for purpose, and ripe to be taken down.  Established publishing houses are described as “legacy businesses” by teenage entrepreneurs seeking to discredit them.  Perhaps they fail to distinguish between a business that has a valuable inheritance, and has the capacity and the drive to embrace the new world, with one that isn’t in control of events.  Or perhaps they confuse all established businesses with the fireworks of the tech sector, the Netscapes and MySpaces that crashed and burned; the Yahoos and Research In Motions whose innovation has been eclipsed by other, newer stars.

It’s inevitable that what appears to be change-making today will become – necessarily – protective and fixed tomorrow.  Perhaps, in this sense, “legacy” simply means “grown-up and responsible”.  Well, there are worse things to be, and, companies that once behaved radically will start to behave protectively instead, in order to maintain their primary income streams.

But let’s talk about retailing, because this is where a physical legacy can become really toxic.  In the 1930s, Woolworths opened nearly 400 brand new stores across the UK.  When I say “opened”, I don’t mean “rented a tin shed and screwed their name to the front”.  I mean, they acquired freeholds, and built big, brand-new stores.  This was a massive investment of cash and confidence in the market.  The crowning glory was the Blackpool store, which opened in Spring 1938.  Five storeys over 75,000 square feet, including two vast restaurants.  Woolworths was one of the biggest and most powerful consumer brands in the world.

Building all those stores guaranteed Woolworth a strong presence in every town in the country.  This was the legacy of its period of supergrowth, but as time passed, the retail offer lost its focus; the freeholds were sold, and the legacy of great stores was no longer a valuable inheritance, it was a millstone of failing retail premises.

Historically, this is what retailers have done – opened stores, and carried on opening them until sometime after the market cries “enough”!  Clintons Cards and Game are two of the most recent examples in the UK – and then, of course, there are the challenges facing the remaining booksellers.

Right, here’s a scary prospect for you.

Imagine you’re running a chain of bookshops.  We may be talking about hundreds or a handful; we may be talking about any country in the developed world.  Two or three years ago, the era of the superstore came to an end.  Now, I would argue, the era of the chain bookshop is going to follow, unless the model is radically reinvented.

So, if you’re running a chain of bookshops today, you have to do two impossible things.

The first is to deal with your straggling real estate, because, as I’ve discussed, the single biggest challenge for any bricks and mortar retailer is their legacy of old stores.  However carefully that estate has been built, however appropriate it was five years ago, it is now shot through with toxicity.  All of those shops are tied to long leases, with upward-only rent reviews.  Landlords are operating in a shrinking market, so are in no position to give concessions to any business that wants to close a shop while the lease still has years to run.  This leads to pre-packs and CVAs (company voluntary arrangement), but these acts of desperation are usually the prelude to administration.

All retail businesses have an unproductive tail, and any location that’s bad at the moment has the scope to get worse.

Archie Norman, Asda’s former CEO, has observed that retailers should close 5% of their estate every year, and he’s absolutely right – but I can think of no retail business that has heeded that advice until it’s much too late.

As a bookseller, your bricks and mortar shops have to be super-viable.  You must close today’s loss-makers, and tomorrow’s loss-makers too.

Plenty of retailers are facing this problem right now – Argos, French Connection, Mothercare and Thorntons have all been in the news in recent weeks.  However, although they’re vulnerable to online sellers, it’s still difficult to digitise a romper suit or a box of chocolates.

So, close your under-performing stores.  Then define your customers and their interests, and close any further stores that don’t match that profile.

Your second impossible challenge, and one that is at the heart of this conference’s purpose, is that you have to compete in an omni-channel marketplace, and you have to do so against some of the richest corporations the world has ever seen.  Logically, this is impossible, because it requires huge resources, and your chain of bookshops can’t do this alone.

This is where the book trade needs to pull together.  This industry is at a crossroads where it either allows the global corporations to progress from being walled gardens to becoming super-fortresses; or it fights to ensure plurality.  I salute unreservedly the stand that Macmillan and Pearson are taking, alongside Apple, in the Department of Justice case regarding agency pricing.  A couple of weeks ago, Amazon decided to give away the Hunger Games eBook free of charge.  Now, maybe I’m just losing it as I get older, but can anyone explain to me how giving away the best-selling book in the world helps to secure current income, or to create a future value proposition, for anyone other than Amazon?  It may be that the publisher and thus the author still got paid, but at the long-term cost of proclaiming their work to be without value.

Booksellers today need the freedom to participate in the omnichannel world, and it is in everyone’s interests to lower those barriers.  That means removing DRM, so that content becomes device-agnostic; customers can buy the hardware that suits them, and the content, at an appropriate price, from the retailer who can do the best job for them.

I would love to see thinking of this sort emerging from Microsoft and Barnes & Noble’s NewCo.  If B&N thinks it now has the firepower to challenge Amazon without also changing the ground rules, then they will find that Amazon can always out-gun them.  Anybody else with a stake in ebookselling needs to do likewise.  You won’t beat Amazon by being a pale imitation of Amazon, pleading with consumers to do what’s best for the long-term health of the book trade.  Consumers have enough to worry about.  They will respond, though, to a different, better offer.

Your retail goal – because you’re running a chain of bookshops, remember? – has to be an integrated ebook and pbook offer, with full online visibility of stock by branch for your customers.  You’ll need a financial model that supports “showrooming”, because it’s a fact of life.  You’ll offer Click and Collect, targeted social marketing and all the rest of it – everything a sophisticated pure-play online retailer does, with a shop attached.  You’ll need to understand more about your individual customers than ever before.

Your online and ebook offer can of course cover all categories.  Your pbook offer must be reshaped to reflect the new reality.  That means fewer fiction paperbacks, and fewer reference books, because the day of the “general bookshop” is over.  You need to be known for doing a few things extremely well, not everything tolerably competently.

All of this sounds scary, and you will all be aware that the number of specialist bookshops in the UK has declined by over 20% since the credit crunch kicked off.

Booksellers – and, by extension, our suppliers and our customers – invested far too much energy in worrying about supermarkets, and not enough in recognising that Amazon wasn’t just another specialist competitor in a healthy eco-system, with a novel twist.  Today, if we take all the UK’s true specialists, the Waterstones, the Foyles, the academic chains, all the independents, and add them together, I don’t suppose their unit sales are as great as Amazon’s are now.

There’s a school of thought that says, well, you pesky booksellers, you should have done more.  Should have done it sooner.  More fool you.  I think this is a little like acknowledging that a fine historical building has caught fire, and saying “they should have installed a better sprinkler system.  I’m not calling the fire brigade” – when there is still plenty of merit worth saving, and plenty that you’d miss if that magnificent building was gone.

Specialist booksellers – including independents – are now barely competing with each other at all any more.  They’re competing with Amazon and Apple; they’re competing for time as well as spending.

However, here’s the interesting thing.  At the risk of sounding like Clement Freud on Just A Minute, I’m going to run through a diverse list of retailers.  Here goes:

Anthropologie • Argos • Asda • B&Q • Bentalls • Blacks • Comet • Conran Shop • Cotswold Outdoor • Dobbies • Eden Project • English Heritage • The Entertainer • Fortnum & Mason • Habitat • Halfords • Hamleys • Harrods • Harvey Nicholls • HMV • Historic Royal Palaces • Hobbycraft • Homebase • John Lewis • Lakeland • Morrisons • Mothercare • National Gallery • National Trust • 99p Stores • Oliver Bonas • PC World • Pets At Home • Poundland • Royal Horticultural Society Wisley • Ryman • Sainsbury’s • Selfridges • Tate • Tesco • Toys ‘R’ Us • Urban Outfitters • Wyevale Garden Centres

Most of these businesses are thriving, successful enterprises.  Some are struggling – but all of these chains are also booksellers.

Some, like the supermarkets, are big, important players.  Others offer books as a value proposition, or as part of the lifestyle offer they’re promoting, or as a souvenir of a day out.

But they all believe that there’s a place in their shops for physical books.  Most of these retailers have a much clearer understanding of their brand, and of their customer, than general bookshops have.

The physical bookshop struggles, but the physical book can thrive.

We tend to look at the problem from a “growing online, declining physical” standpoint.  But if the solution is to ensure that all physical stores have multichannel capability, surely the same applies to pureplay online retailers?

As Sarah Wilson of the Egremont Group has argued persuasively, without a high street presence, without the ability to see and touch the goods you want to buy, online sales will plateau.  After all, if we all really wanted to, we could stop using bricks and mortar shops tomorrow, and just buy everything online – it’s all there, after all.  But we don’t.  Consumers of the future will be looking for an “integrated experience… as they choose to shop across channels and increasingly look on pure plays as employing yesterday’s model”.

OK, this is where it gets interesting.  You’re running a chain of bookshops, remember?  But chains are inevitably bland.  Chains are corporate.  Chains are bound by process; necessarily managed to lowest common denominator standards.

I’d posit that more good managers leave book chains and open their own bookshops than happens in most other sectors.  They do it because they love what they do.

So, at this stage in the development of the bookshop, I think it’s time to acknowledge this.  You could create a partnership model, like John Lewis’s.

Or you could be bolder, and create a franchise model.  The centre would provide the technology, the systems back-up, the buying power.  The managers acquire ownership of the stores, buying an interest in them or purchasing them outright, customising their shops as appropriate for their markets.

You cease to have a chain of stores.  Instead, you have a network of individual specialists.  They may go down the children’s route, open cafes, build non-book sales.  Or they may, like the Harvard Bookstore, invest in Espresso Book machines; providing a real specialist service, with same-day delivery to local addresses, and next-day around the world.

That network of stores doesn’t have to be restricted to your core business.  You can sell your chain’s expertise to other independent bookstores, and reinvent yourself as a bookshop service organisation.

We have a number of good businesses supporting UK booksellers.  Gardners’ networked Hive website, offering pBooks and eBooks online; the Bookseller and Nielsen, providing news and reliable data; and of course the support of the Booksellers Association.  I’d like to see all of these organisations – and others – committed to supporting everyone who is a bookselling specialist, whether they’re primarily selling eBooks or pBooks, online or instore.  If anyone could pull this together it would be the BA, but the organisation would have to repurpose itself appropriately.

There’s a way forward for individually managed and owned shops that have full access to ebooks, and yet can localise their offer to suit each physical location, each local residential, business and academic population, in a way that chains inevitably struggle to deliver.

And funnily enough, your carefully tailored local offer could be exactly what individual customers around the world are looking for.  And today, you can reach out to any potential customers.  You can identify where there are similar populations, elsewhere in the country, elsewhere in the world, and serve them too.

Of course, this means that you and your shop need to have to have an opinion.  A point of view.  A personality.  All of these things rolled up into a specific and saleable competence.  Please some of the people most of the time, because you can’t be all things to all people.

Supermarkets have done their damage, and will reduce their book ranges as the mass-market transitions away from paper books.  This is an opportunity for our industry’s specialists, who need to improve in quality and consistency.  Some of our best bookshops are among the smallest and most independent, in every sense of the word.

Customers will still seek out good, well-run shops, and I suggest that the distinction between “independent” and “specialist chain” is a whole lot less important to everyone’s future, than the distinction between “specialist” and “non-specialist”.

A healthy bookselling sector is in the best interests of everyone in the trade – authors, agents, publishers, readers.  Bookselling needs to remodel itself for the future, and do so in partnership with all the other key players in the publishing business.

But books and bookshops still matter, and there are still people who want to sell books.  If those specialist bookshops focus on competing with each other for ever diminishing returns, they might disappear altogether.  The more effectively they can work together, the more robust our retail offer in the future.

To comment on this blog post, just click on “leave a comment” in the Tags block above.

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My eBook, A Year at Front of Store, is available in these Amazon Kindle territories –

United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Spain

Barnes & Noble and Microsoft – back to college

Coverage of the Microsoft/Barnes & Noble alliance over the past 24 hours has been copious – the story even appeared above the fold on the front of the UK edition of the FT this morning.

Here’s a series of links to the most thought-provoking articles:

The New York Times provides a succinct summary of the deal.

Bloomberg notes that, last Friday, B&N was worth $800m; at close of trade yesterday, that valuation (essentially for the core superstore business) had jumped to $1.3bn – but the Microsoft/B&N Nook/College deal was valued at much more, $1.7bn.  Bloomberg’s piece has some great lines, including the observation that: “[the] news reflects tech’s prevailing World War I-style balance of power, where an enemy of your enemy is suddenly your best friend”.

Tools of Change’s Joe Wikert is always worth reading, and he notes that a physical retail presence (where Xbox and other Microsoft and Windows 8 hard and software could be showcased) could create real value.

Gigaom is sceptical – Microsoft is taking what it can get; it missed out on overpaying for Yahoo, has it made a sensible deal here, or is Nook just the only game in town?  On the other hand, Philip Jones at FutureBook says that he has been “watching Microsoft dance around the digital reading business for more than a decade, [and] this may be the first time they’d actually worked out a way of doing it well and making money out of it”.

All of this excitement, and no one’s mentioned the much-speculated Waterstones/Nook tie-up (pause to contemplate Waterstones stores as Xbox showrooms).  But I continue to be convinced that, despite the continuing sector upheavals, there is a strong – but different – future for physical retailers.

(After all, there’s really nothing to stop all of us doing all of our shopping online, right now.  But – although online – or, more correctly, multichannel – continues its exponential growth, we aren’t quite making that leap.)

For many years, the Barnes & Noble brand was used by two separate organisations: the publicly-traded superstore business, and the Len Riggio-owned college stores.  In 2009, the two organisations were finally rolled together, but the Microsoft deal separates them again.  This looks smart to me.

B&N’s college stores are much more than campus bookstores – they’re  sophisticated, multi-purpose, student-targeted marketing vehicles.  New stores are opening regularly, selling new and used books, and a wide variety of other student consumables, from educational products to letterman sweaters.  They serve 4.7m students at 650 colleges.  These students are the tastemakers of tomorrow; B&N College already showcases technology (not just Nook), and this audience has to be an attractive one for Microsoft.

Furthermore, college stores tend not to require the sort of real estate investment that stand-alone big boxes demand.  Located on college premises, where faculties want to ensure a bookstore thrives, they have more scope to negotiate their fixed costs down, and to occupy a small but right-sized, on-brand space.

The College division also owns B&N’s old 5th Avenue flagship, which was (bluntly) in dire straits last time I saw it, but is well-located to test a whole new approach to books-plus retailing.

And of course, separating the college stores from the superstore business makes a future restructuring more straightforward.

This isn’t just a tech story, it’s a bricks-and-mortar story too, and in a world of Amazon, Apple and more Amazon, it’s one that has to be vigorously welcomed.

What Do New York’s Bookstores Have that London’s Lack?

Publishing Perspectives, the American online journal of international publishing news and opinion, has published a piece I wrote following a whirlwind tour of New York City bookstores, complete with a neatly provocative title!

And indeed, Gotham bookstores do have some qualities that less apparent in London – and I’ve focussed on some of the best of breed.  Read on, and I hope you’ll track down some of these great shops next time you’re in NYC.

What Do New York’s Bookstores Have that London’s Lack?

A few pictures to whet your appetites:

Rizzoli – photo: store website

McNally Jackson: store website

Scholastic: author’s own

St Mark’s:

WORD: author’s own




Barnes & Noble 5th Avenue:

Barnes & Noble Union Square:

Barnes & Noble 86th and Lexington: author’s own

Amazon to save the high street! (Unverified)

Is Amazon going to open a shop?

The answer is, that no one outside Amazon knows, and no one inside Amazon is telling.  The rumours first surfaced in the autumn of last year, supported by this excellent artist’s impression:

– then, over the past week or so, the chatter has gone into overdrive (and so have the photoshoppers)…


So, let’s suppose Amazon opened a shop – or, more appropriately, a showroom, in downtown Seattle.  How would that work?  The let’s-not-think-about-this-too-carefully model would be the Apple Store, of course, but Apple’s offer is narrow and deep, whereas Amazon is wide and shallow.  Apple manufactures five ranges (iMac, MacBook, iPhone, iPad, iPod; iPod is on its last legs, but iTV may take the space).  The scope and capability of each of these devices (basic iPod excepted) is broad enough to support hours of happy browsing, and to ensure that Apple’s store staff are kept busy explaining evermore brilliant applications hidden in the depths of their beautifully crafted merchandise.

Everything is sold at top-of-the-market prices, earning top-of-the-market margins to support the fairly hefty occupancy costs that come with Apple’s first-class locations.  The model is splendidly profitable (though I’d continue to advise Apple against over-expansion – they have about 35 stores in the UK at present).

But Apple’s is not a model that would work for Amazon.  If you don’t own a Kindle, you will have played with one in a store, or had a go at WH Smith’s Kobo, and will have swiftly concluded that – brilliant though an eReader may be at delivering its simple premise – it’s a one-trick pony that doesn’t need retail real estate to support it.  The Kindle Fire does more, of course, but not enough to make a standalone store a viable proposition.  No doubt Amazon is considering branded phones and other technology, but their price positioning is the opposite of Apple’s, and Amazon would need a compelling argument for loading retail overheads on to their zero margin products.  And aside from the Kindle, pretty much everything that Amazon sells is created, manufactured and supplied by other companies.

The other obvious model is the big bookstore – Amazon as Barnes & Noble.  This idea falls at the first hurdle – big book and entertainment stores were a 20th century idea that no longer works today outside of a few major cities.  Unless some sort of own-brand battle were to develop, with Amazon, B&N, BAM etc all carrying unique books in their stores and competing against each other for readers – “Better authors, better books, better prices”…  I only have to write this out to see what a non-starter it is.  Bookshops aren’t like fashion stores.  Revenues from full-range book/entertainment stores have fallen, are falling and will continue to fall.  Amazon knows this, and they won’t be opening any of these:

Of course, taking B&N as a propotype is misguided anyway – it plays to Amazon’s heritage as the world’s vastest bookstore, not to its future objective – to be the world’s largest retailer, period.  This suggests an Amazon department store – nope, that doesn’t work either.

How about an update on this concept?

For readers outside the UK, Argos is a chain of catalogue shops – essentially a shopfront with warehouse space behind, selling a broad range of homewares, furniture, electricals, toys, jewellery and much more.  They’re a catalogue outfit which is transitioning painfully to an integrated physical/online model; very little merchandise is on display in the stores.  As a retail experience, Argos is distinctly downmarket – grim ambience, basic service, mass-market brands (though everybody shops there at some point).  Mind you, that Argos logo suggests a certain synchronicity…

But all of this is a sideshow

Amazon brand showrooms would certainly be interesting, and their introduction of lockers in major cities suggests that some customers are making use of a click and collect operation.  But one of the primary reasons for Amazon’s success and for their ability to blow Tower Records, Borders and the rest out of the water is their low margin/low prices model.  Unless they execute a stunning strategic leap forward (eg a partnership with a major supermarket chain) the idea of physical shops as a major plank of Amazon strategy still feels premature.

It also presupposes a world in which all of Amazon’s competitors – which include not only other retailers, but also many of their suppliers as well – continue to behave as though Amazon dominance is the only plausible outcome in our retail world.  The legacy copyright businesses (books, music etc) have certainly crumbled hitherto, but Amazon will only achieve pre-eminence in the rest of the retail trade if other retailers and suppliers simply roll over and let them.

The threat is being taken seriously, as US bookstore chains have decided not to carry Amazon books; now publishers need to show similar mettle, as the American Editor blog argued persuasively earlier this week.

So, I’m increasingly of the view that we aren’t on a path to an inevitable Amazon-dominated outcome, but that future will be messier and more interesting.  Amazon wins when its competitors worry most about protecting their legacy, and aren’t prepared to take some short-term earnings pain as they rethink and restructure.  Amazon is focused, rigorous and ruthless, but it’s a corporation, which means (paradoxically) that it’s human, which means missteps and stumbles.

Its competitors need to force those missteps and catch Amazon unawares.  This means thinking themselves out of any comfortable legacy mindset into a new and bold one.  Brands, copyrights and patents are immensely valuable, but their exploitation is a fluid opportunity, not an enslavement to tradition.

The book/entertainment retailers who have gone out of business fought the last war and lost; good generals develop new strategies in changed circumstances, and Amazon’s best competitors will do the same.

Tools of Change, NYC, February 2012

Enough blogging for the time being, as I am off to New York to speak and debate at the Tools of Change conference.  I’m looking forward to meeting many smart people who are focussing on the future – if you’re there, I’d love to meet you, and do drop into our session on the Changing Face of Retail Bookselling, at 10:45 on Tuesday 14th.  There is much to discuss!

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My eBook, A Year at Front of Store, is available in all Amazon Kindle territories – United StatesUnited KingdomGermanyFranceItaly and Spain.  

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How to sell an eReader – Barnes & Noble vs WH Smith

My monthly column in The Bookseller is now available online.  This time around, I contrast the American multi-platform strategy of Barnes & Noble (stores,, Nook) with the less three-dimensional approach to eBooks that WH Smith/Kobo are pursuing in the UK.

What next for Barnes & Noble – and trade publishing?

The US press has been dusting off its “death of the bookstore” pieces following the Borders liquidation announcement.

There has been plenty to read, much of it as fresh as an old haddock, but the summary is: Borders made a series of bad management decisions that hastened its demise, but Amazon and digitisation have fundamentally altered the landscape, so – as the weaker player – Borders was bound to go down anyway.

Here’s National Public Radio’s synopsis of the familiar tale:

The Wall Street Journal offers a decent summary:

It includes this table, which is worth focusing on for a moment:

This indicates that:

  • The US market for physical books will fall by 11% in 2011, compared to 2010.  It will have dropped by 21% since 2008.
  • Amazon grew share through to 2010, and its share of the physical market in 2011 will rise from c.24% in 2010 to c.27% in 2011.
  • The increase in eBook sales is not compensating for the decline in total industry unit sales.
  • Given the lower average selling price for eBooks, this will significantly lower overall industry revenues.

And by the way, all of this will happen in the UK (and progressively in other non-English language countries) as well.

Actually, I believe the WSJ’s premise is in danger of being optimistic.  After Borders closed in the UK, it’s estimated that 40-50% of the company’s book sales simply vanished.  The impulse purchases, the gift buys and the self-indulgences evaporated; customers who were spending miillions of pounds a year at a big store in Ellesmere Port had nowhere local to transfer their purchases to – book-buying became inconvenient and, in recessionary times, an unjustifiable luxury.  (And Borders UK folded before there was any significant eBook market in this country.)

This AP article offers quite a good perspective on format changes, and customers drifting away from books:

Adrian Sierra, 36, a real estate agent from Westchester, N.Y., walked out of a Borders store in Penn Station in New York without a shopping bag filled with books.  He was, however, carrying his iPad.  “I’ll miss them,” he says, but, “I’m not going to buy another paperback in my life. There’s no reason to anymore.”

The Motley Fool goes on to remind us that “last man standing” is no kind of strategy in a world where buggy whips are passé.  What is their prognosis for Barnes & Noble?

Meanwhile, as book retailers have serially exited the market, the publishing community has been making robust noises throughout the storms of recent years.  But structural change is likely to come.

What happened to the record companies

The music business is far further  down the the path of digitisation and collapsing sales values, than book publishing.  Back at the peak, the music industry in the UK was dominated by five huge corporations, each with their own A&R, studios, manufacturing and distribution.  They were:

  • EMI (HMV, Parlophone, Capitol, UA/Liberty, Harvest, MfP)
  • Polygram (Polydor, RSO, Phonogram, Vertigo, Deutsche Grammophon, Philips and Decca)
  • CBS (US Columbia, Epic)
  • RCA (Victor)
  • WEA (Warner Bros, Reprise, Elektra/Asylum, Atlantic)

These were the global players.  Also significant were the big independent labels, such as Island, Arista, Tamla Motown, A&M, Virgin, MCA, Ariola, and Chrysalis; parochial leftovers like Pye/PRT; and feisty post-punk indies like Stiff, Factory and Sire.

Every one of those labels, and all of their output (notwithstanding the fall-out from individual licensing deals) is now subsumed into four businesses:

  • Universal Music
  • Sony BMG
  • Warner Music
  • EMI

(And it should have been three – EMI and Warner tried and tried again to merge.)  Of course, new independents have appeared, from indie and hip-hop through to Naxos.  They’re better suited to the multi-channel era, but none of them has the reach or ambition of the old giants.

Former Waterstone’s MD Dominic Myers was lambasted when he suggested that the UK book industry has too much distribution capacity – but he was right.  What will be the shape of “old publishing” in five or ten years time?  Discuss…

Barnes & Noble/Nook update – US eBooks showing exponential growth

Normally I just tweet links like this one from my @frontofstore Twitter account, but I felt there were more than 140 characters of insight to be drawn from this piece from  MocoNews.

  1. The superlatives regarding eBooks keep stacking up.  This report states that eBooks are now outselling hardcovers 3 to 1 on, Barnes & Noble’s online division.  You’ll recall that it’s less than a year since Amazon put out their first “eBooks outselling hardcovers” story in the US.  Now we’re looking at a three-fold difference.
  2. Of course, eBooks and hardcovers aren’t directly competing with one another.  The biggest eBook sellers are genre fiction, through traditional publishers and self-published authors.  Many hardcovers – art books, cookery etc – don’t lend themselves easily to eBook transformation.
  3. The average selling price of an eBook is way lower than that of a typical hardcover.  B&N’s online hardcover bestsellers are priced around the $16 mark.  Their Nook (eBook) bestsellers tend to run at around $9.99.  Over 2 million titles (?!?) appear to be available as eBooks for under $5.
  4. Nook has a market share of 27% in the US, with Amazon’s Kindle holding 60-65% of the market.  That’s a big gap between players, but B&N has achieved much more significant market penetration than any non-Amazon brand in the UK.  Over here, Kindle is reckoned to have 80%+ share, with the rest of the market divided between many other offers.
  5. Total B& sales increased by 65% last year.  Not bad for a booksellers (a “dying format”) – you can see where a lot of the Borders superstore business is migrating to.
  6. Nevertheless, B&N still lost $59m in its last quarter – way better than Borders, but it underlines the cost of online bookselling.  In the UK, Waterstone’s – which has issues of its own (see FoS passim), but which has resisted over-investing in the online provision of physical books or eBooks – is likely to post a decent year-end profit after some seasons of turbulence.
  7. Finally, B&N is on the block, with its board reviewing the Liberty Media offer, which is predicated more on the potential of its online competence, than the future of its superstores.
Now that’s what I call bricks and mortar.  B&N at Baltimore Harbor, picture from

Borders: Australia, the US, and the heyday of the super-cinema

Two new stories today on the continuing dismemberment of the old Borders empire.

First up, confirmation that none of the Australian superstores has found purchasers, and that the rump of nine will all be closed by the end of July.  (In New Zealand, 57 Whitcoulls and five Borders stores have been acquired by a large, family-controlled retail group, though how many will continue as bookshops is unclear.)

Secondly, private-equity firm Gores Group has indicated an interest in 200 (about half) of the remaining US Borders superstore estate; Gores has extensive interests across the entertainment sector and beyond, though their plans for those stores aren’t clear.  If this, or a similar, deal were to go through, it’s difficult to imagine the remaining Borders stores looking very attractive to any industry buyer.

It’s now a year and a half since Borders closed in the UK, and some of the wounds are starting to heal – all but one of the stores is now tenanted, or back in landlords’ hands for re-letting.  In the course of those 18 months, the bookselling eco-system has changed beyond recognition, with – for instance – Pan Macmillan (the UK’s fifth largest trade  publishing group) announcing that 8% of its Q1 trade sales value came from e-books, a market that is growing exponentially each quarter.  (And, here in the UK, we still haven’t had our first Kindle Summer.)  Throughout the interminable process of HMV selling Waterstone’s, there was no suggestion (confirmed or otherwise) that any established retail group had any interest in one of Britain’s favourite retail brands.

This pace of change is such that, already, it becomes difficult to conceive of a world – still viable through the early 2000s – where book superstores were a rational part of the bookselling infrastructure.  Few sectors are seeing so much change, so quickly, driven primarily by a fundamental technological change.

Here’s a parallel: up until the outbreak of war, super-cinemas were being rolled out across the UK in ever more grandiose buildings.  Here’s the Odeon in Bradford, which opened in December 1938 with 2,713 seats.

The architecture is splendid, of course.

When Bradford Odeon opened, the BBC had been broadcasting its television service for two years, but TV was a minority gimmick for the very-well off, and only a few thousand sets were in use.

The war ended new cinema building, and closed down the TV service, which gave the cinema chains an extended lease of life.  Had there been no Hitler, and no war, and had the economy continued to recover from the slump, with technical development concentrated on consumer goods, rather than radar and atom bombs, it’s easy to conceive that television would have been a mainstream product by the mid-1940s.  Bradford Odeon’s heyday was brief, and though it fared better than many cinemas (it was still profitable into the early 1960s), it was demolished in 1969.

Oscar Deutsch and his backers could never have conceived that their super-cinemas could have lasted for so short a time, but a fundamental technology shift (actually delayed for 10 years by a world war) changed everything.

Back in the bookshops, Barnes & Noble (quietly reducing the size of its store portfolio) is targeting the holy grail of an intertwined physical shops/online fulfilment/digital sales model.  If anyone can make this work, B&N can – with an established website and a strong alternative e-reader in the Nook; but is ownership of hundreds of bricks and mortar stores the starting point they’d choose today?  And in the UK, James Daunt is being wooed by the press and sizing up Waterstone’s before taking over the chain at the start of next month.

More changes to follow.  Mind you – cinemas have altered beyond recognition, but they haven’t gone away…

Odeon facts and photo from Colin Sutton’s Bradford cinemas website,  

Borders photo from