Advertisements

The changing entertainment market

Retail Week, The Grocer, The Bookseller and others have all reviewed Kantar Worldpanel‘s latest analysis of the UK entertainment market, which focuses on the 12 weeks through to mid-June.

Despite all this coverage, there is a some vagueness as to what is and isn’t included in their definition of entertainment.  As far as I can tell, however, we are looking at:

– CDs (and other recorded music)

– DVDs (and other video content)

– console and PC games

– downloads

It looks as “downloads” includes ebooks, but the sector definition as a whole doesn’t include pbooks.

It’s unclear how broadly downloads are defined – all apps, or just those that have some kinship to traditional formats?  If so, that would be a “yes” to Angry Birds, but a “no” to business apps.

It’s also unclear whether all subsidiaries are properly accounted for – so, for instance, are LoveFilm downloads included in Amazon total?

Still, whatever the definition, it all makes for a good story.  The changes in percentage point share are pretty predictable – Amazon up, HMV down, Game Group – with multiple store closures following administration – well down.

But I am interested in the scale of some of the gains.  Of course, the overall size of the market fluctuates, but for iTunes to move from 6.0% to 8.8% represents an increase in penetration of nearly 50%.  And, LoveFilm or not, Amazon’s growth continues powerfully, with no reason to assume it will slow down in the foreseeable future.

Tesco’s tribulations and Sainsbury’s progress are both graphically illustrated here – indeed, if these numbers are a microcosm of current trading at Tesco, that would be a concern.

Meanwhile, Play.com sees its share slide, as it loses consumer visibility.  Amazon isn’t just taking sales from bricks and mortar retailers…

That the “Others” are growing their share suggests diversity in the market.  I wonder who they might be?

Advertisements

A showroom with a view – the future of high streets

Frankly, you could cancel most of the drama series on TV nowadays and instead stream a live tale of everyday retailers into the nation’s homes.  Tesco, Peacocks/EWM, Game, Iceland and many others are all delivering stories of real tragedy (job losses), hubris, separation and (in Malcolm Walker’s case) triumph.

It’s edge-of-the-seat stuff, and today’s sensational news of Richard Brasher’s exit from Tesco is just the latest exciting plot twist.  Furthermore, this is interactive experience, as customers are the ultimate arbiters of who succeeds and who fails.

It’s also a tale of legacy and inheritance – too many stores in the wrong places, old management styles or an immature multichannel offer all presage disaster ahead.  Stand by for next month’s Titanic metaphors…

Last Friday’s Retail Week devoted several glossy pages to a gallery of multichannel leaders from across the sector, representing companies as diverse as Harrods, Sainsbury’s and Wickes.  In a very short time, “multichannel” is moving towards “omnichannel” (thanks Gareth), as consumers move faster than stores to blend their online, mobile, and bricks-and-mortar shopping activities.  The customer is always right, and – frustratingly for both parties – the customer is now often several steps ahead of the retailer.

The more this snowball gathers speed, the more quickly prescriptions about the high street become out-of-date.  So here are a few thoughts, wrapped around a simple statement:

Showrooming is here to stay

At least it is for as long as the showrooms can remain open.  But the ease with which customers of all ages have embraced comparison shopping, and the unemotional way they’ve ditched their old loyalties in favour of better value in tough times, has come as a nasty surprise to many retailers.

You spend years building your brand, extending your storebase, cementing a reputation for value and/or service and then, without so much as a Gerald Ratner speech, the whole house of cards is blown away, and the company is left not with a proud legacy, but a horrible mess of bank debt, unprofitable shops and over-complicated management structures.

Nevertheless, customers enjoy showrooming, and no large retailer can succeed in the future without an integrated offer that recognises stores are showrooms.  It needs to have few enough of them, in cost-effective enough locations, for the whole P&L equation to add up.  John Lewis Partnership (reported last week to be investing £450m in “growth and multichannel leadership”) will build its JL and Waitrose online offers, not as “alternative stores”, but as an integrated part of their consumer offer.

Companies with an optimum number of stores can integrate their online commerce/service offer with bricks and mortar and move forward.  But – and this painful – not enough stores are being closed, yet.  This in large part is due to the challenges leaseholders face when managing their real estate legacy – leases are long, penalties are onerous, and landlords are struggling to see where replacement tenants will come from.

Winners and losers

Leaving the food sector to one side, I envisage a future where large, successful chains, selling unique merchandise, are able to sustain a reasonable sized store-base, with customers using the brand’s services through any combination of physical and virtual contact points.  These companies will be able to leverage their use of technology to stay ahead of their competitors, but they must always look forward.  Retail legacies are of no more real value than the beautiful company histories that retailers used to commission – interesting for the archivist, irrelevant to the customer.

This means embracing technology that has the capability to kill much of your bricks and mortar offer – because if you don’t close down your weakest branches, someone else will shut down the whole lot.

As an example, one techology that has been talked about and tested for a long time is the virtual changing room.  This is a great gadget for boutiques – but can you imagine the fractious queue for the magic mirror in a small provincial Top Shop on a wet Saturday afternoon?  Much more efficient to provide the technology as an app that customers can use through their online-enabled 42″ TV screens in the privacy of their own homes.  I can easily envisage “magic mirror parties” at home – much more fun than a chick-flick.

Winners will run forward with new applications, and will be unsentimental about store closures.  They’ll have uniqueness on their side – must-have products available nowhere else.  Physical shops will still matter, but they won’t be required in the numbers that they have been historically, adding weight to the “fewer, better stores” trend.

There will be more losers.  If you’re selling branded merchandise available from multiple suppliers, if you’re selling products manufactured in the Far East and sold, unchanged, around the world, if you’re selling a product with limited touch-and-feel qualities, if you’re selling generic or commodity products, then the road ahead is a very thorny one.  Is marrying Comet and Game likely to be a good idea?  Rephrasing the question, and assuming (rather rashly) that both business’s unwanted legacy real estate can be disposed of, are the brightest and best within Comet and Game able to focus on a future in which physical stores are just a part (a small part), and leading-edge technology will enable them to sell more products, more effectively and more profitably, than Amazon?

We have moved on very quickly from dead record shops and dying book shops.  Any sector, any shop, that cannot provide a vivid reason for customers to continue to shop there starts to look like a showroom for online brands to exploit.  (Shortly afterwards, it looks like an empty store.)  But does this mean (roll of drums) the Death Of The High Street?

I think not.  It means the radical reshaping of the high street, though, and without getting all butchers-and-bakers-and-candlestick-makers, it does mean combining the best of the past with the most desirable elements of the future.

It means far fewer shops – 20% less, 30% less?  The number will vary depending on the prosperity and lifestyles of the local customers, or the effectiveness with which that high street (or shopping centre) can act as a regional or national magnet.  But the good town centres of the future will either be local, or super-regional – in-between won’t stack up anymore.

It means a high street which (as the supermarket chains have figured out) provides the staples you need in a hurry, and (as the best independents have figured out) a choice of goods that you simply can’t buy anywhere else.

It means a high street that provides entertainment, community, and relaxation – not one where hours are spent in unpleasant shops, buying commodity goods.  There’ll be more meeting up (facilitated by phone, of course), more coffee, more chat; more escapism, more novelty, less stress.  Because there are fewer shops, there’ll be less traipsing.  Parking provision might even improve (well, I can dream – though more shoppers’ buses would be welcome).

Manufacturers will run showrooms – if the value chain in many categories has eliminated the margin a physical retailer requires, then technology companies, for instance, will have to follow Apple’s lead and provide opportunities for consumers to see their goods, prior to buying them at the best price from whichever online supplier works best for them.

So the future of the local high street becomes a blend of entertainment, uniqueness, staples and showrooms.  Customers would appreciate this, but it would require some categories to disappear completely, and others to reinvent themselves.  Can the retailers, the landlords and local/central government – if government post-Portas is paying attention – do this, or will too much business transfer to Amazon before the necessary changes are made?


Front of Store – the e-book!

I started writing the Front of Store blog a year ago, as a response to British retailers’ 2010 Christmas trading numbers.  A year later, a new set of results has  been published, another Christmas has been put to bed, and it feels like a sensible time to take stock.

When I created the first entry, I couldn’t be certain what directions my blog would take – I knew I had plenty to say, both about my “home” trade of bookselling, and about the broader world of retail.  And the news stories kept on coming throughout the year – Borders, HMV, Waterstone’s, and more recently Westfield, Tesco and Mary Portas.  Underpinning the bricks and mortar triumphs and travails is the real unavoidable success story of modern retailing – online commerce, digitisation and Amazon.

Ah yes, Amazon.  An inescapable part of everyone’s life now, bringing good things (service and value) to the consumer, while driving a coach-and-horses through established practices in every sector it touches.  Like Apple, Amazon anticipates the future, leaving its competitors to react to its initiatives.  Too often, Amazon’s competitors try to protect their heritage, where instead they should be repurposing their companies for the future.

There came a point last autumn when I looked at the total word count and thought, blimey, I’ve got a book here.  Hence a Front of Store e-book – and, of course, I’m selling it through Kindle Direct Publishing.  Industry estimates suggest that around 1.3m e-readers were bought in the UK over the Christmas period, and of that number, 1.2m were Kindles.

It would therefore be profoundly foolish to début anywhere other than on Kindle.  Naturally, if I have a smash hit on my hands, I’ll make use of other formats – but the effort required to make a Kindle book has been fairly demanding – many evenings of editing and formatting in, and swearing at, Microsoft Word.

The initially published result was below par, so today’s buyers are being offered the second edition; after KDP struggled to translate tables and jpegs into ebook format in the first version, I went back and substituted lists and descriptions.  This probably says more about my book-creating abilities than it does Amazon’s – but it underlines the complexity of creating “real” books, and the relative ease of ebook publishing.

I was talking to a friend last week who spends much of her life on planes and trains, and who loves her Kindle – convenience, accessibility and readability all score high marks with her.  However, she confessed that she struggled to remember what she’d read on the Kindle; by contrast, physical books have a tactile presence that imprints itself on your memory (and thereafter, they sit on your shelves, whispering “remember me?”).

“A Year at Front of Store” is journalism, news and comment as it happens.  I’ve carried out some pretty vigorous editing – excising time-expired pieces, eliminating anything that required colour illustration (or indeed any pictures at all), improving syntax (a bit), and adding in summaries and afterwords in the appropriate places.  I’ve also included pieces that were published elsewhere, and added the full text of my Frankfurt address from October.

What I haven’t done is to apply any Winston Smith editing, so I don’t foresee that Mamut will buy Waterstone’s in June, or that London will riot in August.

There are a number of themes that I’d like to explore for a book “proper”, which will require a shift from journalism to more considered writing.  The retail industry continues to be the most fascinating business arena – fast-moving, unpredictable, unsafe, and undergoing its most fundamental changes since the birth of the supermarkets.

I’d like to give a big hurrah for WordPress, which allows the Front of Store blog to happen, and whose text is relatively easy to shunt into Word, and thence to KDP.  The blog has created opportunities for the Front of Store consultancy, as well as opening up some fascinating opportunities to speak at conferences and to advise behind closed doors.

Finally, thanks for reading.  Readership of Front of Store has been growing exponentially – January’s hit-rate is 30% higher than December, which was 48% higher than November – and so on.  Here’s to an exciting, challenging, ever-changing 2012.

A Year at Front of Store is available in all Amazon Kindle territories – United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.  Treat yourself to a copy!


Christmas trading 2011: results table – Wednesday (and final?) update

25th January 2012

WH Smith traditionally brings the Christmas results season to a close, and here they are, down 6% in the high streets and 3% at their Travel division.  Although this was accompanied by the usual statements about the entertainment categories (CD, DVD, now an infinitesimal part of Smith’s mix), and “resilience”, “challenge” and “cost controls” all made their usual appearances, there was little indicating retail progress.  Strong categories?  Kobo and online?  Former British Bookshops stores?  You can manage a business for cash for so long (and it’s been so long that it’s remarkable), but at some point you have to sell more product, to more customers, more often.  That’s what we want to hear from WHS, and it’s what’s missing again.

19th January 2012

I’ve been on the road for the past couple of days, and quite a few gaps in the table have been filled during that time.  Strong sales from Primark and Matalan indicate that there’s still a desire for value when it’s done well.  Of course, you might say the same about Peacocks, which by all accounts remained operationally profitable, but has been crippled by debt and forced into administration, threatening the biggest one-off loss of retail jobs since Woolworths in 2008.

The Centre for Retail Research in Nottingham has published a sobering schedule, detailing retail failures from 2010-2012.   They state that, over the five years 2007-2011, 173 retail businesses folded, comprising a breathtaking 18,342 stores, and over 150,000 jobs.  Questions please to the CRR –here’s the link.

Back to Christmas 2011, and at the other end of the fashion scale, Burberry and Mulberry have announced excellent growth, but it’s been unclear whether the numbers have referred specifically to UK retail, so I’ve omitted them.

No such qualms with not-retailers-at-all Greene King and JD Wetherspoon.  Looks as though we still have money to spend on a night at the pub!  And animals had a good Christmas, even if their owners cut back, with Pets at Home up 4.9%.

I posted a like-for-like book sales for Oxfam last week, and this has been followed by a flurry of other figures, reported in the Guardian.

Biggest news from the mid-week period has been from the electricals retailers, with Dixons (Currys/PCWorld) hailing -7.0% as a relative success, and Comet’s  -14.5% a reflection of the grim condition of a business struggling through a sale process, and pretty much disowned by Kesa.

However, I think there are good things to be said about Dixons, but they need a separate blog – watch this space…

16th January 2012

Just three additions today – Boots and The Perfume Shop, both looking good; and the McArthurGlen outlet centres, which appear to have had an exceptional season.  It’s worth bearing in mind that Christmas historically has peaked early at outlet “villages” like Swindon and Cheshire Oaks – outlet customers search out the best bargains early, and then complete their shopping in traditional malls and high streets – from memory, the final weekend in November was typically the best in the run-up to Christmas.

Who are we still waiting for?  Of those who made Christmas trading announcements last year: Electricals – Currys/PCWorld and Comet; books/media – WH Smith and Waterstones (though the latter is now privately owned, so is under no shareholder pressure to announce); fashion: Primark, Matalan; DIY: B&Q (though Christmas is hardly a prime season for them, it’d be good to benchmark their performance against Homebase and GCG).

Who would we like to hear from?  Big, successful private businesses like Arcadia and River Island; PE-owned growers like Pets at Home and Hobbycraft; discount grocers like Aldi and Lidl, and bargain retailers like Poundland; niche successes like Jack Wills and Cath Kidston; mega-brands like Selfridges…  It’s a long list, and any analysis of published numbers is inevitably just a snapshot of a sector which is far less plc-dominated than in the past.

13th January 2012

A quick final update before the weekend is upon us.  Has Tesco had enough press coverage?  As Twitter noted last night during News at Ten, you’d think they’d called in the administrators…  Still, Philip Clarke has been very candid about the challenges Tesco faces, and has been reminded (as The Times editorial today emphasises) that no company stays at the top forever.  I’m thinking hard about Tesco Extras, and a separate blog might follow…

Nils Pratley on The Trouble at Tesco

Harry Wallop on Is This the End of Tesco Dominance? (QTWTAIN)

Meanwhile…  Good numbers from Original Factory Shop, The Entertainer and Superdrug, but another tough season for Theo Fennell.  Nul points to Asda and Ted Baker for announcing total growth for Christmas, but not like-for-likes.  Of course, I appreciate they don’t have to announce anything at all, but if I had shares in Wal-Mart, I’d want to know what was what.

12th January 2012

After a positive start to the week, things have turned ugly with poor results from Tesco spooking the markets, and throwing fresh doubt over the sector.

As you can see from the table above, Tesco has performed significantly worse than other supermarkets (and M&S food, which has been broken out separately in reporting, and which saw a like-for-like increase of 3%).

House of Fraser has posted some remarkably good numbers, but it isn’t clear whether they’re inc or ex-VAT.  For the record, I’m a committed ex-VAT person – including a variable rate of tax in your sales is no way to accurately reflect like-for-like shopper behaviour.

(At Borders, 75%-80% of our sales were VAT-free – books, newspapers and magazines – and the remainder was VATted – stationery, CDs, DVDs, toys etc.  We also paid a “special rate” of VAT, where eg a CD-ROM was attached to a book on computing or language learning, which reflected the fact that part of the whole product was zero-rated.  I’d like to think that the HMRC officers required to create and police these rules, and audit the proceeds, cost rather more than the total tax take.)

Anyway, back to Christmas 2011, and as expected, times were tough at the likes of Halfords, Thorntons and Mothercare.  Argos had a particularly grim set of results – for how long will 750 stores be sustainable?

Some more variances to reporting periods, highlighted in green.  These were the reporting periods twelve months ago:

  • Tesco LY: 6 weeks to 8th January
  • JD Sports: 5 weeks to 1st January
  • New Look: 15 weeks to 8th January
  • House of Fraser: 5 weeks to 8th January

FTSE 100 retailers are now shown in bold.

10th January 2012

Plenty of results added to today’s table, including a couple of outriders that you may not have seen reported elsewhere!

Game takes over at the unhappy end of the chart; their LY numbers are highlighted because of a change in reporting period – for 2010, they reported five weeks to 8th January, this time around, an additional three weeks pre-Christmas were included.  The Co-op also made a change – the prior year numbers relate to a 13 week period, October – December.

There’s some inc-VAT (Debenhams) and ex-VAT (Majestic) differentiation, which given the rate jump from 17.5% to 20% has a bearing on different companies’ numbers.  And of course, these are just sales – not profits.  The rumbling undercurrent – “of course, their margins will have taken a hit” – accompanies many of these announcements.

Nevertheless, it’s great to see many more pluses than minuses on the schedule – long may it continue…

9th January 2012

And they’re off.

It looks as though this year, every media source and his dog is going to be publishing regular updates on Christmas trading, so I’ll keep this brief, and update it as required.

I’ve included last year’s numbers, where I have them – and as this is a busy office, I haven’t dug out LYs where I previously didn’t have them – I’ll try and infill if Edwin Drood becomes unwatchable.

Worth noting that, where comparisons exist, the order of companies is exactly the same as last year.  (The reporting periods are all similar, so these are good comparisons.)

It’s worth remembering that bad results always take longer to calculate than good ones…

And for the many hundreds of you who enjoyed my “8o towns” blog from last week, I’ve shown store numbers.  Counting stores is always an inexact art, but most of the chains are on multiples of eighty.  Some will stay that way – supermarkets, Next.  But there’s restructuring in the air.

Just to keep us all honest, this article from the Telegraph highlights some of the more imaginative ways that Christmas performance can be characterised.

And, lest we forget, the following chains probably won’t be providing Christmas trading updates:

Barratts Priceless, Blacks, D2 Jeans, Hawkins Bazaar/Tobar, La Senza, and Past Times.  Ask not for whom the bell tolls, but let’s hope stores can be rescued, and jobs maintained.


Big Box Man: options for Tesco and Dixons

The festive season hangover – the publication of Christmas trading results – is almost completed.  WH Smith will announce next week and, on past form, that is likely to be the end of it.  Thereafter, we will have to wait for actual half-year and full-year reporting, so that we can understand the levels of discounting that were needed to deliver some of those better-than-expected like-for-likes.

Away from the real strugglers, two businesses caught my attention.  The first was, of course, Tesco, whose -2.3% LFLs sat uncomfortably next to Sainsbury’s +2.1% and Morrisons +0.7%.  CEO Philip Clarke has now been in post for well over a hundred days, but he is acknowledging that Tesco has to change.  His comments, allied to the poor trading figures, caused a sharp fall in Tesco’s share price, but it’s very clear that action is under way.

I’ve written before about the grudging nature of the Tesco store experience (here), and the sense I always get that the best interests of the consumer have to be aligned with the best interests of Tesco, rather than the other way around.  It looks as though Clarke understands this – the Big Price Drop was yesterday’s response to today’s problem, and achieved the double of being trumped by other supermarkets’ vouchers whilst alienating loyal Clubcard holders; Fresh & Easy is looking like a bullet that needs to be bitten.

And here’s what interested me most: in conversation with Retail Week’s Alex Lawson, Clarke said:

You can go on growing space but we probably won’t be growing very big hypermarket space any more. We have got a few hypermarkets coming but will be announcing more on the bias of stores in April.

In other words, less of this in future?

And rather more of this?

We’ve seen problems for big box operators, as a result of online competition, in specialist sectors – Comet, Best Buy, Borders, Virgin Megastore and many more.  However, the suggestion that Non-Food isn’t pulling its weight at Tesco; that Non-Food is as vulnerable in Tesco to online competition and showrooming as it is in less diversified specialist retailers – well, that is quite a sea-change.  With 10% of all retail spending in the UK now taking place online, it’s inevitable that Tesco will be suffering attrition from online-only retailers, but the strategic shift implied by Philip Clarke (presaging an announcement in April) could herald the biggest shift in the pattern of UK retailing since Woolworth failed.  Perhaps it also paves the way for Tesco to save the high street…?!

However, I don’t buy the “big box dinosaur” argument, although – as the Tesco Extra picture above demonstrates – you can reach a point when the size of your store becomes oppressive, and just adds to the unwelcomeness that can be part of the Tesco experience.

But good big boxes will survive and thrive, both because retail parks work exceptionally well (particularly away from London) as the most cost-effective way of bringing a diverse retail offer to a scattered population, but also because the big box experience, when done well, can deliver results that the high street just can’t match.

And so to Dixons.  It’s been a filthy Christmas in electricals, with Best Buy closing down and Comet getting worse and worse as Kesa takes time to sell, leaving Dixons looking relatively healthy with a -7.0% like-for-likes.  Chief Executive John Browett has been concentrating on changing the way the stores look and – more importantly – the way the customer feels about his business.  I think he’s on the road to success – I liked the “Black” store at Westfield, and I really liked the refurbished Currys/PCWorld retail park store I visited earlier this week.

Like the store in this photograph, a consolidated electricals offer is now available under one roof, and sensibly the consumer electronics – audio, visual and computing – are on the ground level, with white goods – washing machines and vacuum cleaners – on a mezzanine.  This makes for a smaller and more efficient footprint, but it also enables Dixons to create an electronics offer that I think makes John Lewis look tired and off-pace.

John Lewis?  Bow, bow ye upper middle classes!  But where JLP presents a brown goods world of carefully delineated TVs, radios, hifi and computing, the new Dixons layout recognises that we don’t use devices in this way any more, and that the distinctions between various product lines are now blurred.  Its layout and flow presents a more effective offer for the consumer, and invites them to enhance their home electronics more effectively than old-style competitors.  Wireless sound systems and big screens are now computer adjuncts, not “hi-fi” and “television”, and Dixons gets it.

Their Knowhow sub-brand message is driven home with relentless effectiveness – we really do understand this stuff, it says.  Much has been made of the culture changes within the business, recognising (at last) that an ill-informed hard sell in an intimidating environment just doesn’t work any more.  The new stores are customer friendly with good graphics, plenty of explanation and demonstration items, and informed but unpushy service.

Dixons has a huge estate – over 600 stores of various ages and configurations – and it has much to do to bring them all into line with current best practice.  I’m optimistic, though – I think they’ve really got something here.  However – please – they’ve got to do something about branding.  The new stores aren’t “two stores under one roof” – they offer an integrated selection of electricals for the kitchen and every other room in the house (and office).  Currys was a dismal washing machine shop, with neglible brand heritage (and it’s a word that looks poor on fascias, sounds blah when you say it).  PC World harks back to the glories of Windows 95, but it leads with Apple and Kindle – suddenly, “PC World” sounds about as on-brand as Radio Rentals.  Time to can these hoary old brands, and return to the one with the best heritage in the sector:

Images: Wikipedia; The Guardian; Peterborough Today


Christmas: far too early to call

Not a great deal of action on the Front of Store blog in the past couple of weeks, as I’ve been out on the road a lot, assessing stores, formats and catchments.  Plenty of news in the retail sector, though, with the end of the Best Buy brand in the UK, and the sale of Comet for £2 (with a £50m dowry); as the Observer comments on the electricals sector this morning:

Amazon’s small overheads and Tesco’s huge scale have enabled cheaper products to eat away at the specialists’ profits. So far they have resisted the fate of the book and record stores swept off the high street by online rivals. Could the worsening economy now push yet another retail category into the virtual universe?

It has been a difficult autumn across most retail categories, with the continued mild weather slowing down sales of winter fashion and precipitating a series of one-day events at the likes of House of Fraser and Debenhams.  Recent results at Next and Marks & Spencer both illustrated how challenging the middle market is, even for the best-run businesses, and WH Smith unveiled lower sales and higher profits for the nth successive quarter – Nils Pratley has commented astutely on this.  (Nationally, book sales are poor, running 12% down on 2010 last week.)

There are just 41 shopping days left until Christmas, and though the streets of Staines were busy yesterday afternoon, there’s still a lot more window shopping than actual commerce taking place.  Consumers are well-versed on tough Christmases now, and the question is not “will prices fall?” so much as “how early will the sales start?”.  There’s already plenty of red-and-white in the windows, as hard-pressed retailers seek to liquidate stock and free up cash.

London’s West End tourist boom continues, with Crown Estates announcing that there will be fewer, larger stores in Regent Street in the future; Westfield Stratford has welcomed millions of customers (I’ll be back there on Tuesday) and has indicated that the old Whitgift Centre in Croydon could be next for the Westfield treatment.  But London has never been as disassociated from the rest of the country, in retail terms, as it is now.

It’s going to be a difficult Christmas, with every sale a small victory against consumers’ tight purses and low levels of “feel-good” (despite that “Capracorn” John Lewis ad).  Online will grow, device sales will soar (Best Buy may be dead, but Wireless World is Carphone’s focus now) and new retail formats will emerge on the shoulders of the old.

On a lighter note, here are a couple of stores positioning themselves for the future of the book trade:


Britain’s Top 100 Consumer Brands (Nunwood research)

Marketing strategy researchers Nunwood have published their Top 100 chart of UK consumer brands, based on feedback from 7,000 consumers.    You can read more about their findings here.